Global economic activity continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2025, in a context of lower inflation and easing trade tensions. According to the latest available data, GDP growth in the United States stood at 1.8% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, after 2.3% in the previous quarter. In the Eurozone, GDP growth was 1.3% over the same period, down slightly from 1.4% a quarter earlier. In emerging countries, economic activity remained buoyant in China, with production up 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, after 4.8% in the third quarter. In South Africa, growth rang in at 1.9% in the final quarter of the year, after 2.1% in the previous quarter. In the West African sub-region, economic growth rose by 5.1% and 5.5% respectively in Nigeria and Ghana during the fourth quarter, after 4.0% and 5.5% previously.

Disinflation continued worldwide. Prices in the United States rose by 2.7% in December 2025, compared with 2.8% in the previous quarter, while in the Eurozone, inflation dropped from 2.2% to 1.9%. In emerging economies, inflation was up slightly in China and South Africa, respectively standing at 0.8% and 3.6% in December 2025, against -0.3% and 3.4% three months earlier. In West Africa, the inflation rate dropped, particularly in Nigeria (15.2% compared with 21.0%) and Ghana (5.4% versus 9.4%). However, the inflation outlook remains subject to upside risks linked to the resurgence of geopolitical tensions and the negative effects of climate change. More specifically, geopolitical tensions are likely to cause disruptions in supply chains, which in turn will impact commodity prices. Against that backdrop, in the fourth quarter of 2025, major central banks either implemented cautious monetary policy easing or kept their key rates unchanged.

International financial and monetary conditions in the fourth quarter of 2025 were marked by easing in short-term rates. In the United States, the overnight bank funding rate averaged 3.90% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the previous quarter (4.30%), following the easing measures implemented by the Fed. The benchmark index for the Eurozone interbank market (€STR) averaged 1.93%, after 1.92% a quarter earlier, in line with the status quo maintained by the European Central Bank (ECB) over the period. Bond market yields showed mixed trends. In the Eurozone, prospects of expansionary fiscal policy in Germany and public finance concerns in France led to respective overall rises in 10-year government bond yields of 2.7 basis points (bps) and 5.4 bps in those countries, to stand at 2.72% and 3.48% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the United States, however, long-term yields fell by 16.3 bps in the fourth quarter of 2025, to stand at 4.09% in connection with investors’ expectations of further key rate easing by the Fed. Similarly, in South Africa, 10-year Treasury bond yields contracted by 89.8 bps over the period to stand at 8.70%. On the foreign exchange market, the value of the euro was virtually unchanged (-0.03%) compared to other major foreign currencies, after rising by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2025.