Global economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 remained resilient, despite ongoing disruptions to global supply chains due to the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. It was supported by investments in artificial intelligence, against a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions following the ceasefire in April 2026 and the memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 between the United States and Iran.

According to the latest available data, GDP growth in the United States stood at 2.1% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.7% in the previous quarter. In the Eurozone, GDP growth rang in at 1.2% over the same period, up from 0.6% a quarter earlier. In emerging economies, economic activity remained robust in China, with output rising 4.3% in the second quarter of 2026, following 5.0% in the first quarter, while in South Africa, growth slowed to 1.4%, from 1.9% in the previous quarter. In the West African subregion, economic activity in Nigeria grew by 4.1%, compared with 3.9% in the previous quarter, while in Ghana, the growth rate dropped to 4.8% from a previous level of 6.4%.

Global inflation rose in the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. In the United States and the Eurozone, inflation accelerated to 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively, in June 2026, compared with 3.5% and 2.6% in March 2026. In emerging economies, price growth in China remained at 1.0%, as in March 2026, while in South Africa, it stood at 5.0%, up from 3.1% three months earlier. Inflation also rose in Nigeria (15.9% in June 2026, compared with 15.4% in March 2026) and in Ghana (5.3% in June 2026, compared with 3.2% in March 2026).

International monetary and financial conditions tightened overall in the second quarter of 2026, with short-term interest rates remaining relatively stable and long-term bond yields rising in major advanced economies. In the United States, the Overnight Bank Funding Rate averaged 3.63%, as in the previous quarter. The benchmark index for the Eurozone interbank market (€STR) averaged 1.97%, marking a slight increase of 4 basis points quarter over quarter. On the bond markets, 10-year sovereign yields rose by 25.0 basis points in the United States, amid growing expectations of inflation. In Germany, yields on 10-year government bonds rose by 10.7 basis points, driven by expectations of increased public spending in the defense sector. Similarly, in France, yields rose by 17.9 basis points, driven by investor concerns over public finance.